Study Reveals Driving Habits Can Predict Dementia Risk Early

Subtle changes in driving habits may serve as an early indicator of dementia, according to a recent study conducted by researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in Missouri. The study highlights that tracking driving behaviors through in-vehicle GPS data can identify individuals at risk of cognitive decline years before conventional medical tests typically detect symptoms.

The research involved a cohort of 298 older adults, including 56 participants diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), a recognized precursor to dementia. Participants, averaging 75 years of age, provided consent to have GPS devices installed in their vehicles and to undergo regular cognitive assessments. Over more than three years, researchers analyzed various driving metrics, including frequency of driving, distance traveled, and adherence to familiar routes.

The findings revealed that individuals with MCI exhibited noticeable changes in their driving habits. They began to drive less frequently, particularly avoiding nighttime driving and showing reduced variation in their daily routes. These behavioral shifts not only emerged early in the study but also persisted, providing a promising method for monitoring cognitive health.

Using driving data alone, the researchers achieved an impressive 82 percent accuracy in predicting MCI. When additional factors such as demographic information, cognitive test scores, and genetic data related to Alzheimer’s were included, accuracy increased to 87 percent. Conversely, without driving data, accuracy dropped to 76 percent, underscoring the value of these everyday metrics.

Implications for Public Health and Driving Safety

Lead author Dr. Ganesh Babulal, an associate professor in the Department of Neurology, emphasized the importance of this research in addressing public health concerns regarding older drivers. “Early identification of older drivers who are at risk for accidents is a public health priority, but identifying people who are unsafe is challenging and time-consuming,” he stated.

Monitoring driving behavior presents a low-burden and noninvasive method for assessing cognitive function. This early identification could facilitate timely interventions, potentially preventing accidents or dangerous situations. Research indicates that individuals with MCI or dementia are at an increased risk of crashes due to impaired judgment, slower reaction times, and difficulties with spatial awareness.

One study conducted in 2009 by researchers at the University of Pisa found that individuals with MCI and mild dementia performed significantly worse on driving simulations compared to cognitively healthy individuals. The “mean time to collision” for those with mild dementia was reported as 0.5 seconds, compared to 1.7 seconds for MCI patients and 2.7 seconds for healthy controls.

As the study’s authors noted, such monitoring must respect individual autonomy and privacy. Ethical considerations are paramount when implementing strategies that utilize personal driving data.

Limitations and Future Research

While the study presents promising findings, the researchers acknowledged limitations in their sample population. Most participants were highly educated and predominantly white, which may restrict the generalizability of the results. The study was published in the medical journal of the American Academy of Neurology and received funding from the National Institutes of Health and the National Institute on Aging.

Mild cognitive impairment is prevalent among older adults, affecting an estimated 17 to 22 percent of Americans aged 65 and older, translating to roughly five to seven million people. Although not all cases progress to dementia, MCI is a recognized risk factor, particularly when memory is notably affected. Studies indicate that between 10 to 20 percent of individuals with MCI develop dementia annually, with about one-third of those with Alzheimer-related MCI progressing within five years.

Dementia compromises essential driving abilities, leading to disorientation on familiar routes and challenges in responding to traffic signals or sudden hazards. As cognitive decline progresses, changes in driving habits may serve as early warning signs, as demonstrated in this study.

Driving regulations for individuals with dementia vary across the United States. Many states allow or require physicians to report drivers diagnosed with dementia to the Department of Motor Vehicles, which may necessitate further evaluations. Depending on the severity of cognitive impairment, assessments may include vision screenings, written tests, or functional on-road evaluations conducted by specialists.

In some cases, individuals with early-stage dementia may retain their driver’s licenses, albeit with restrictions, such as limited driving hours or distances. Guidelines often recommend reassessing a person’s driving ability every six to twelve months once cognitive impairment is identified.

As dementia affects over seven million Americans and is projected to increase to nearly 13 million by 2050, identifying early signs of cognitive decline remains critical. The implications of this study could reshape how healthcare professionals monitor and support older adults, ensuring safer driving practices and improved overall health outcomes.