Labour’s Controversial Strategy for London Mayor Risks Backfire

Labour’s recent strategy to regain control of London’s mayoral elections has raised eyebrows, particularly with its proposal to reinstate supplementary voting. This plan, which includes extending voting rights to 16- and 17-year-olds, could have significant implications for the political landscape in 2028. Critics, including former adviser James Ford, warn that the Labour Party may be making dangerous assumptions about voter behavior and preferences.

The Labour Party is currently navigating a challenging political environment. A combination of a deeply unpopular Labour government at the national level and a long-serving Mayor facing criticism over unmet housing targets and rising crime could spell trouble for the party’s chances. Even the potential for a new Labour candidate may not be sufficient to maintain its grip on City Hall. While the announcement regarding teenage voting has garnered substantial media attention, it is the plan to restore supplementary voting that is seen as a more strategic move aimed at solidifying Labour’s position.

The supplementary voting system, previously in place from 2000 to 2021, has historically favored Labour candidates. Under this system, voters select a first preference and can also indicate a second preference. This allows voters from smaller parties, such as the Green Party and Liberal Democrats, to lend their second preference votes to Labour, a trend observed in every mayoral election between 2004 and 2021. Conservative strategists have long feared that a Labour candidate could win the mayoralty based on second preference votes, even if the Conservatives led in first preferences.

Potential Pitfalls in Labour’s Assumptions

Labour’s reliance on the anticipated support from approximately 300,000 new teenage voters in London is a significant gamble. There is little data available on how this demographic will cast their votes, and past polling efforts have often overlooked younger voters. It is important to recognize that these new voters could be drawn to more radical parties, rather than aligning with Labour.

Additionally, Labour seems to be counting on a coalition of progressive voters, including those from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, to support their candidate through second preference votes. Yet, with a broader array of independent candidates emerging, including potentially Jeremy Corbyn‘s new leftist party, the dynamics of tactical voting could change dramatically. Notably, Ken Livingstone’s victory in 2000 as an independent candidate with just 39 percent of first preference votes serves as a reminder of the unpredictability of London elections.

Recent trends indicate that both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have become increasingly influential in London elections. In the 2024 mayoral elections, these parties collectively secured nearly 300,000 votes, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens finishing in third and fourth place, respectively. Such results underscore a potential shift in voting patterns, where progressive voters might opt for tactical voting strategies to unseat Labour.

The Rise of Reform and Changing Political Landscape

Labour’s third major assumption is that the rise of the Reform Party poses a threat primarily to the Conservatives. However, evidence from the 2025 local elections shows that Reform has successfully attracted disillusioned Labour voters as well. The supplementary voting system may actually benefit Reform and Conservative candidates, as tactical voting becomes more viable. If these parties can coordinate their efforts to encourage their voters to lend second preference votes to each other, Labour could find itself sidelined from City Hall.

The political landscape in London, much like across the UK, has evolved beyond a simple two-party structure. Voters now have a wider range of choices and have demonstrated a willingness to exercise those options. By reverting to a voting system that once served Labour well in a two-party context, the party may inadvertently undermine its own prospects.

As the 2028 elections approach, Labour’s electoral strategy will be tested against the realities of an increasingly complex political environment. Whether the party can effectively adapt to the changing dynamics of voter preferences remains to be seen, but the stakes could not be higher as it seeks to maintain control of London’s political future.