Iran and Russia Challenge U.S. Influence in Caucasus Peace Deal

The geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus is shifting dramatically following a provisional peace deal signed on August 8, 2023, involving U.S. President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. This agreement, while heralded as a potential turning point, raises significant questions about its enforceability and the intentions of regional powers Iran and Russia, both of whom have expressed strong opposition to U.S. involvement in the area.

The Joint Declaration signed at the White House is described as the beginning of a new era of “eternal peace.” However, its provisions are largely vague and non-binding, resembling a memorandum of understanding rather than a definitive contract. The signatories have merely pledged to continue discussions aimed at a lasting settlement, reiterating positions they have publicly held before.

Crucially, the agreement fails to address one of the primary sticking points in negotiations: Azerbaijan’s demand for Armenia to amend its constitution to formally recognize Baku’s sovereignty over the Nagorno Karabakh region, recently regained by Azerbaijani forces. Nevertheless, the deal appears to offer a potential resolution to another contentious issue — Azerbaijan’s wish for a corridor connecting its mainland to the Nakhchivan exclave. Under the proposed plan, this corridor would be managed by the United States, although operational details remain uncertain.

Analysts have noted that the summit at the White House does not resolve many underlying issues. Joshua Kucera, a senior analyst for Crisis Group, stated, “This summit was a step forward in the peace process, but the agreements reached leave a lot of questions unanswered.” He added that the motivations of both Armenia and Azerbaijan may involve a desire to curry favor with Trump by involving him directly in the region’s affairs.

The proposed corridor has been named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). The symbolic branding could enhance U.S. engagement, as Trump’s personal reputation becomes intertwined with the success of this initiative. This association adds a layer of complexity, as both Armenia and Azerbaijan work toward a fragile peace while navigating their national interests.

Russia and Iran are poised to actively counter U.S. influence in the Caucasus. Political scientist Sergei Markov suggested that the establishment of significant U.S. presence in Armenia would constitute a direct threat to Russian and Iranian interests, altering the strategic situation in the region. He stated, “This changes the entire strategic situation throughout the South Caucasus.”

Iranian officials have also reacted strongly. Former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati characterized the corridor as a “political plot” that poses a critical threat to Iran’s security and economic interests. He warned that a U.S.-managed corridor would become a “graveyard of the mercenaries of Donald Trump,” signaling Tehran’s readiness to take action against what it perceives as a threat to its sovereignty.

The Kremlin’s response has been more measured, with Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova cautioning that increased U.S. involvement could exacerbate tensions in the Caucasus. She emphasized the need for foreign involvement to strengthen peace rather than introduce new complexities, referencing the painful history of Western interventions in the Middle East.

Domestically, Prime Minister Pashinyan may face considerable opposition to the peace deal. Recent polls indicate that only about one-third of Armenians believe the country is on the right track. According to Nima Khorrami, an associate research fellow at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, “For Armenia, this peace deal offers a path toward economic diversification and greater strategic autonomy, but its success hinges on navigating domestic polarization and countering external interference.”

The future of the TRIPP initiative remains uncertain. As Kucera pointed out, “If Trump is looking for an easy peacemaking win, he’s not there yet in the South Caucasus.” The path to a sustainable peace is fraught with challenges, and the aspirations set forth in the Joint Declaration may take considerable time and negotiation to materialize.