U.S. and UK Strengthen Influence in Syria and Libya Amid Russian Focus on Ukraine

Efforts by the United States and the United Kingdom to secure a strategic advantage in Syria and Libya have intensified as Russia concentrates its military resources on Ukraine. Following the removal of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 and the ousting of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in 2024, both nations are now implementing measures to stabilize these regions and prevent rival powers from expanding their influence.

In a notable shift, the U.S. lifted sanctions on Syria’s Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources and key oil facilities in early July. These changes, which included the removal of restrictions on importing Syrian oil into the U.S., aim to revitalize the country’s oil and gas sector. The sanctions removal order emphasized the goal of fostering a “stable, unified, and peaceful” Syria. Before the civil war began in March 2011, Syria produced approximately 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) from reserves of 2.5 billion barrels, with European nations being significant importers of its oil.

As part of the renewed focus on Syria, several U.S. firms, including Baker Hughes and Hunt Energy, are expected to spearhead efforts to rejuvenate the oil, gas, and power sectors. A senior source within the European Union’s security framework indicated that these companies will initially focus on oil-producing areas west of the Euphrates River, currently under the new Syrian government’s control.

Strategic Moves in Libya

Libya presents a similar scenario. Before the Arab Spring, Libya was producing around 1.65 million bpd of high-quality light crude oil. Although production has yet to return to those levels, recent agreements between British oil giants BP and Shell with Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) signal a renewed interest in enhancing the nation’s energy output. BP’s memorandum of understanding signed on July 8, 2023, aims to evaluate redevelopment options for key oil fields in the Sirte Basin and explore unconventional oil and gas development opportunities.

In addition to these agreements, U.S. firms are also making progress in Libya. A cooperation agreement was signed between Mellitah Oil and Gas, a joint venture between NOC and Italy’s Eni, and U.S. construction consulting firm Hill International. This project aims to increase Libya’s gas production from two offshore gas fields, with expected output reaching 750 million cubic feet per day starting in 2026.

General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army, has been in discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials, highlighting Russia’s ongoing interest in Libya despite the country’s fragmented political landscape. This engagement is critical, as Russia, through its military support for Haftar’s forces, seeks to maintain a foothold in the region.

While both Syria and Libya face challenges stemming from internal conflict and external influence, the latest developments suggest that the U.S. and UK are determined to solidify their positions. By enhancing economic stability and energy production in these countries, they aim to mitigate the risks of further destabilization and limit the expansion of Russian and Chinese influence in the region.

As these strategic initiatives unfold, the competition among global powers for energy resources and geopolitical dominance in the Middle East and North Africa is becoming increasingly pronounced. The outcomes in Syria and Libya will not only shape the future of these nations but also the broader landscape of international relations and energy security.