Researchers Analyze Chikungunya Outbreaks to Enhance Predictability

Public health officials are gaining new insights into the unpredictable nature of chikungunya virus outbreaks through a comprehensive analysis conducted by researchers at the University of Notre Dame. The study, published in Science Advances, examined over 80 outbreaks, aiming to improve predictions and inform future vaccine development.

Chikungunya, a mosquito-borne illness, typically presents with acute fever and severe joint pain, which can persist for months. Although rarely fatal, the virus poses significant risks to vulnerable populations, including newborns and older adults. While outbreaks primarily occur in tropical and subtropical regions—such as Asia, Africa, and South America—recent cases have been reported in Europe and the United States, including a confirmed infection in Long Island, New York, in September 2023.

In response to these outbreaks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued health advisories for travelers heading to countries experiencing chikungunya transmission, including Bangladesh, Cuba, and parts of China, among others. Notably, Guangdong Province in China faced an “unprecedented” outbreak that led officials to implement strict quarantine measures and extensive mosquito control efforts.

The Study’s Findings

The research team, led by Alexander Meyer, a postdoctoral researcher in Professor Alex Perkins‘ lab, developed the largest comparative dataset of chikungunya outbreaks to date. “Instead of looking at outbreaks in isolation, examining many with variations in size and severity allowed us to identify patterns,” Meyer stated.

Perkins, who serves as the Ann and Daniel Monahan Collegiate Professor of infectious disease epidemiology, emphasized the challenges of predicting outbreak severity. He noted that one outbreak could infect a small number of individuals, while another in a similar environment could affect tens of thousands, complicating public health response strategies.

Factors Influencing Outbreak Severity

Traditionally, the relationship between climate change and mosquito-borne diseases has been a focal point for researchers. Warmer temperatures and increased humidity can enhance mosquito activity, leading to higher transmission rates. However, Perkins pointed out that climate factors alone do not adequately predict the severity of chikungunya outbreaks.

“While temperature and rainfall can indicate where outbreaks might occur, they do not significantly help in forecasting how severe they will be,” he explained. Local conditions, such as housing quality, mosquito density, and community response, play crucial roles. Additionally, some variations are simply random occurrences without clear explanations.

Currently, only two chikungunya vaccines have received regulatory approval, but their availability is limited in regions most affected by the virus. The comprehensive dataset created by the Notre Dame team is essential for vaccine trials. Developers need accurate forecasts of potential outbreak locations to conduct effective trials and assess vaccine efficacy.

This study demonstrates that thorough analysis of past outbreaks can enhance public health preparedness, ultimately benefiting vulnerable populations and aiding in the development of effective vaccines against chikungunya.

For more information, the study can be accessed in Science Advances under the title: “Predictability of infectious disease outbreak severity: Chikungunya as a case study” by Meyer et al. (2025).