Shetland Sees Decline in Primary School Enrolments as Birth Rates Drop

The number of children enrolled in primary schools in Shetland has decreased by over 200 in the past four years, according to projected figures. Alongside this decline, early learning and childcare (ELC) numbers are also falling—from 519 in 2021/22 to an anticipated 491 by 2025/26. These trends correlate with data from the National Records of Scotland, which indicates that Shetland’s birth rate is steadily decreasing.

Data from the National Records of Scotland reveals that in 2024, Shetland recorded only 166 births, the lowest since records began in 1991. In stark contrast, the highest number of births during this timeframe occurred in 1992, when 324 births were registered—nearly double the number recorded in 2024.

Impact on Educational Planning

The falling primary and nursery enrolments were highlighted during a meeting of the Shetland Islands Council’s education and families committee on Monday. Samantha Flaws, director of children’s services, noted that a proposed project aimed at expanding childcare services in Lerwick might be removed from the agenda due to the declining numbers in nursery enrolments. She emphasized that the project had already faced challenges stemming from inadequate staffing capacity.

The report presented at the meeting underscored the difficulties in future financial planning, particularly regarding how to reduce the cost per pupil as enrolment numbers continue to decline. Despite the drop in student numbers, the cost per primary pupil in Shetland remains significantly above the national average. In the 2023/24 academic year, the cost per primary pupil was recorded at £11,270, compared to the Scottish average of £7,213. Similarly, the cost per ELC pupil stands at £15,716, far exceeding the Scottish average of £11,659.

The primary school enrolment figures reflect a notable decline, with projections indicating a decrease from 1,858 in 2021/22 to 1,637 for 2025/26—a reduction of nearly 12 percent. In contrast, secondary school enrolments have seen a slight increase, rising from 1,470 in 2021/22 to an expected 1,513 in 2025/26.

Long-Term Trends in Birth Rates

Last week, the National Records of Scotland released new figures revealing that the total number of births in Scotland for 2024 is the lowest recorded since 1855. Phillipa Haxton, head of vital events statistics for the NRS, highlighted that these figures reflect long-term demographic changes. She noted that Scotland has experienced more deaths than births for over a decade, indicating a shift towards smaller family sizes and the increasing costs associated with raising children as potential factors contributing to the decline in birth rates.

The implications of these trends extend beyond immediate educational planning and into broader societal considerations. With fewer children in the system, local authorities will need to reassess their strategies in order to maintain educational standards while managing increasing costs.