Trump and Xi Prepare for High-Stakes Trade Talks Amid Tensions

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet on March 15, 2024, in Busan, South Korea, to discuss critical trade negotiations. In the lead-up to this significant encounter, negotiators from both countries have reportedly established a framework for a potential agreement. However, uncertainty looms as the unpredictability of Trump raises concerns that his decisions could jeopardize the talks.

The backdrop to this meeting includes Trump’s recent abrupt decision to withdraw from trade discussions with Canada, coupled with his imposition of a 10 percent tariff on Canadian goods. This move has reverberated through international capitals, illustrating the volatility of Trump’s presidency. The catalyst for this sudden shift was a 60-second television advertisement featuring remarks from the late President Ronald Reagan, which Trump deemed misleading. Such an impulsive reaction was once deemed unimaginable from an American leader.

Negotiating with Trump has consistently posed challenges, and as he approaches the first anniversary of his return to office, his decision-making process appears increasingly erratic. His foreign policy regarding significant issues, such as Russia’s war on Ukraine, has swung dramatically, while his claims of victory in Gaza remain contentious. Recently, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva urged Trump to focus on serious discussions, away from the media spotlight, highlighting the pressure on world leaders to engage with Trump effectively.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has experienced firsthand the difficulties of these negotiations, having participated in tense encounters with Trump during which he has remained visibly frustrated by the president’s theatrical approach. The fallout from the Reagan advertisement, which originated from the provincial government of Ontario, exemplifies the precarious nature of international trade relations under Trump’s leadership.

As the meeting with Xi approaches, negotiators from both nations expressed cautious optimism regarding a potential agreement. China’s chief negotiator, Li Chenggang, described the recent talks in Kuala Lumpur as “candid and in-depth,” asserting that a “preliminary consensus” had been reached. The anticipated agreement may lead to the extension of existing delays on US tariffs imposed on China, a move that Wall Street analysts have interpreted as indicative of Trump’s tendency to retreat from aggressive stances.

A crucial component of the discussions will likely revolve around China’s new licensing system for rare earth exports. Beijing currently produces over 90 percent of these essential materials, and its recent decision to restrict exports has intensified concerns in Washington, particularly within the defense sector, which heavily relies on these resources.

Xi, accustomed to strategic and long-term negotiations, appears perplexed by Trump’s impulsive behavior. Throughout the past nine months, China has retaliated against Trump’s tariff threats, adopting a patient approach akin to managing a child’s temper tantrum. This dynamic creates an environment of tension as both sides prepare for the upcoming talks.

In a recent statement, Jamieson Greer, Trump’s US Trade Representative, hinted at the possibility of further disruptions. After discussions with Chinese counterparts, he indicated that the two nations are nearing the final details of an agreement. His remarks suggest that Trump retains the option to derail the deal at any moment, depending on his mood come Thursday.

As the world watches, the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting could reshape the global trade landscape and determine the future of the US-China relationship. The stakes are high, and the international community awaits the results of what could be a pivotal moment in diplomatic history.