Japan’s Energy Future: Nuclear Power Takes Center Stage

Japan has achieved a notable milestone in its energy transition, with fossil fuels now accounting for less than 60% of the nation’s electricity generation for the first time in history. This decrease reflects a broader shift in energy policies following the Fukushima disaster in 2011. Nevertheless, Japan continues to rely heavily on imported oil, gas, and coal, which still represent over 80% of total energy consumption.

The Fukushima disaster prompted Japan to close all nuclear reactors for extensive safety checks, eliminating a low-carbon energy source that had previously contributed approximately 30% to the country’s electricity output. Consequently, Japan experienced a drastic increase in the importation of liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil, and coal, leading to a spike in carbon emissions.

In recent years, particularly following the energy crisis of 2022-2023, Japan has begun to gradually restart some of its nuclear reactors. This strategy has been instrumental in reducing dependence on fossil fuels, alongside a significant increase in solar energy installations. Japan has set a target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, highlighting a need to augment nuclear power generation in the coming decades to meet this goal.

Nuclear Energy’s Role in Japan’s Energy Strategy

The latest energy strategy indicates that Japan will intensify its focus on nuclear power, aiming to increase its share of electricity generation from nuclear sources to 20% by 2040, up from less than 10% currently. Data from clean energy think tank Ember reveals that the share of fossil fuels in Japan’s electricity supply fell to the lowest level recorded in the first half of 2025, as nuclear and solar energy contributions grew.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Japan’s reliance on oil, gas, and coal imports has decreased to 87% of total energy consumption from a peak of 96% in 2012. Despite this progress, the current figure remains significantly higher than the 81% share recorded prior to the Fukushima disaster.

While nuclear power is essential for reducing emissions, experts assert that Japan will also need to enhance its solar and wind energy capacities. Solar power has emerged as the largest source of low-carbon electricity in the country, accounting for 10% of total generation. This figure has surged fivefold from 2014 to 2024, according to Ember’s data. In contrast, wind power represents only 1% of Japan’s energy generation, lagging behind the average of 11% in other G7 nations.

Challenges Facing Wind Energy Development

Japan is actively pursuing the development of its offshore wind potential, but the sector has faced significant challenges in recent years. The government aims to deploy offshore wind projects with a total capacity of 10 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 and between 30 GW and 45 GW by 2040. To date, three auctions have been held to award capacity, yet major developers are reconsidering their options. Factors such as rising costs and supply chain disruptions have created a difficult environment for the offshore wind industry.

Recently, Mitsubishi Corporation announced it would abandon plans to develop three offshore wind projects, citing unexpected market changes and rising challenges. The corporation stated, “After discussions among the partners, we have determined that establishing a viable business plan is not feasible given the current conditions.” This decision underscores the mounting difficulties faced by the offshore wind sector in Japan and globally.

Ørsted, the world’s largest offshore wind project developer, has also acknowledged the ongoing challenges within the industry. The company warned in May of persistent headwinds that could impact future developments.

As Japan continues to navigate its energy transition, the balance between nuclear power and renewable energy sources will be critical for achieving its ambitious climate goals. The path forward remains complex, requiring strategic investments and adaptations to overcome the obstacles that currently hinder progress.